congress. key gubernatorial races and ballot questions. today we'll handicap it all and talk about what's at stake for the markets. and the looming fiscal crisis, the fiscal abyss and the future of the u.s. economy. it's tuesday, november 6th, election day, 2012. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin and the polls are opening in various parts of the east coast as we speak. some 30 million americans have already voted, including the folks in the tiny village of dixville notch. this follows tradition, they voted just after midnight and with the lowest turnout in almost 50 years, this time around it was a tie. five votes for president obama, five for governor romney.

back in 2008, president obama defeated john mccain 16-5. let's take a look at the map. 270 electoral votes are needed to win. nbc news now shows president obama with 237 likely. romney 206. and 95 in the toss-up column, so it is going to be a very long evening, andrew. >> i think we'll be staying up pretty late and then we'll be back at it tomorrow morning. but cnbc's team of reporters has the country covered this morning. stationed in battleground states, campaign headquarters and here at election central. among our guests this morning, house majority leader eric cantor, and then private equity pioneer and obama supporter alan patricof, outspoken republican ken langone, don peebls, and one of bush's right hand many, larry lindsey will be joining us.

and then later today, a very special afternoon edition of "squawk box," we'll pick up election day coverage again at 5:00 p.m. so if you're sticking with us now, stick with us all day and the cnbc team will continue throughout the evening. of course you can take part in all of this by tweeting us and following our coverage, at cnbc 2012 is the handle. mr. kernen. >> let's get the conversation started. chief washington correspondent john harwood joins us from new york this morning. it just occurred to me, john, 5-5 in dixville notch, 16-5 last time. did 11 obama supporters just not show up and is that a metaphor for what we're really watching today, how many of the real zealous obama supporters from last time come out? i don't know. what do you think? we probably shouldn't call -- you have not called the election yet on dixville moch? >> i'm not calling it based on dixville notch, but what could

be more appropriate in an a 5-5 showing. we have a deadlock national race. all the polls show very close. although yesterday we had an abc "washington post" poll showed obama ticking up to plus three. our poll didn't show over the weekend, obama did not show any particular movement one direction or the other. but we've got to wait and see. and you pouyou pointed to the t question. that's really what it's about. what is the turnout of white voters as compared to african-americans and hispanics. romney dominates whites. obama dominates the minority vote. a related question is what is the relative proportion of seniors strongly romney and drunk people strongly obama. that's really the test. and the obama campaign when polls were showing them tied said, well, we're actually doing better than that because the way

that pollsters calculate who is likely to vote is screening out some of our people. on the flip side, the romney people are saying the enthusiasm among our base is not adequately captured in those likely voters screened. so there's an analytical disagreement between the two and that will get settled today. >> i was kidding about dixville notch, but where are those 11 people that voted for him last time? i mean, it's 5-5. did they move? i heard of a cnn poll that showed a tie. but then the dr, did you see it was 30% republican, 41% democrat, and it came out a tie. so they needed a plus 11 to get it a tie. does that mean anything? >> well, what the partisan identification balance turns out

to be today is going to be one of the critical factors. this is another key disagreement with the two sides. democrats believe that when you look at the exit polls and see who showed up to vote, that there will be 4% or 5% who are democrats than republicans. in 2008, there were 8% more democrats. in 2004, when republicans had an especially strong turnout operation, it was level. >> do we know 2010? >> 2010 i believe had a slight democratic advantage. very slight. >> even though the drought come was so overwhelmingly -- >> well, we have strongly party voting, but not overwhelming. and it depends on the individual state. but republicans believe that the partisan identification balance today, romney campaign believes it will be about plus two for the democrats. >> independents, romney is way

ahead in independents, isn't he? good >> in our poll, yes. in the post abc paul, he was ahead by seven points. the cnn poll had is tied.oaul, ahead by seven points. the cnn poll had is tied.laul, ahead by seven points. the cnn poll had is tied.ul, he ahead by seven points. the cnn poll had is tied.l, he ahead by seven points. the cnn poll had is tied. but part is how you calculate independents. one is to say who are you and you take the identification.second way is to ask some of the people who say they're independent, well, do you lean one party or the other. that separates out more people and makes the pure independent group smaller. >> or in ohio where they look at those ballots and it's the last time you voted for a primary which could go back a long way which is why they can't really tell you you more information about the early voters in ohio. >> what do you make of the strategy of romney campaigning on election day? >> i don't blame him. he's been running for president for a long time. >> should obama be out there today? >> you know, i think the campaigns made calculations based on where they are, what feels right to them.

the tradition has been you barn storm the day before the election and then you go to wherever your home is and you go vote in person and that's the media event for the president or the challenger. of course obama's long since voted reflecting the shift toward early voting across much of the country. so he's gone home to chicago. romney is going to try to scare up enthusiasm late and he's doing it in the state of pennsylvania which is one where he's made a late play and of course ohio which has been critical all along. >> what's the math on pennsylvania? that seems to be up for grabs in a way it wasn't only a week ago. >> i don't think it's up for grabs. i think obama has a lead. the question is going to be is there something with the late advertising and the visits that juices up romney support in a way that produces a surprise. pennsylvania has not gone for a republican candidate for about five or six presidential

elections. so i would be very surprised about if it goes -- >> what's the spread in pennsylvania right now? >> we have not done swing state polling in pennsylvania. because we haven't considered it a swing state. there are polls out there that show obama -- there was one poll out that was commissioned by republicans that showed an even race. other polls have shown three, four points for obama and i think the obama campaign is pretty confident about where they stand there, but we'll find out today. >> here's an answer on dixville notch just looking it up. the 2010 census, there's 12 people there. so fewer people. >> so less people. >> 12 people maybe two of them are younger. >> 16 last time. so seeing an outflow. if there were 16 people, i might look around and think i may go -- unless you like that. unless you like the little bit of -- >> you're too much of a big city boy. >> yeah, i need 20, 25 people to

make me -- 25 people to not hang around with. john, we will be back to you today. >> a lot. >> i don't want to get teary, but we're going to know and we're doing it in a way that is uniquely american and when it's all said and done, there's not seven different parties that have to somehow align to each other to form some stupid coalition government that lasts for six months. we do it and the american people speak and it's done. we live with it for four years. and we try to do the best we can. >> we're standing right on the edge of a cliff and we'll fall over if we don't do something. >> that's true. but you know what i mean. you need a play book for each different country. where you say to them how do you run a country like that and then you think, you know, what they really don't. so that's why. but that's my positive for both

sides here. that it's the greatest way to do it. >> i like that. >> you can hand becky a than kerr chief? i think she's tearing up in that. >> we may play a yoko ono rendition of the star star spangled banner. have you seen that? >> i have not seen that. kind of scares me, though. >> do you remember what scar says in lion king where the little kid says you're weird and scar says you have no idea. you have no idea. you have no idea how sick it is. anyway, john, we'll be back with you for years covering politics like no one else can for us. another reminder, don't forget to tune into a special election day coverage of squawk. and i've already started asking at 5:00 p.m., is it jacket required some becau required? because it's like dinnertime. you love wearing jackets. are other people in charge tonight? is it "squawk box" if i do wear

a jacket? >> you've worn a jacket for some of our election -- >> but not something called "squawk box." maybe -- do we take a poll among voters? >> yeah, dixville notch. i think we'll get a tie. do i get to vote? >> you don't -- >> you say no jacket. >> i would say no. if we're sitting at this set, i would say no. >> some tend to the rpretentiou. >> other people yesterday said make sure you wear a jacket. >> those people told you you couldn't wear a gray tie because carl might be wearing a gray one later in the night. those are people that have serious issues. >> what color tie are you going to wear tonight? >> depends on the color shirt, doesn't it some which for me depends on the color of my boxers. >> i'm wearing a navy tie. >> are you? >> navy is total democrat. >> no, it reads almost black. i figure it's neutral.

>> so that morning if romney wins then -- >> i'm going to wear a red tie for you. >> it's a navy that reads almost black. it's what i wore down in washington. >> i guess i have to go purple. >> there you go. let's get a check on the markets this morning. remember that market indicator we've been talking about, if the dow closes above on election day -- or on election day if the dow is above where it was on labor day, then it generally means that the incumbent wins. but it came down to the wire yesterday. >> but it's today. >> oh, is it the end of the day today? >> yes. >> it can go either direction at that point because i think the number was 13,091 back on labor day. right now it is 13,112 is where it closed yesterday. >> 21 points. >> it is indicated higher today, but, yeah, this is coming down right to the wire. >> the number of romney -- like

a 3,000 difference more. >> and what was if the washington redskins wins, the incumbent wins. they lost. so we're watching all of these last minute indicators. and this morning it looks like futures are indicated higher. you can see right now up by about 37 points or so. dow futures, s&p 500 futures and the nasdaq futures also indicated slightly higher. in europe we've seen green arrows, but these are all moderate gains. you can see the ftse up about half a percent. the cac up by 0.6%. and dax up by half a percent. asia overnight, the markets closed slightly lower. >> we have not had a twitter election yet. so 2010 a little bit -- >> did twitter not exist in 2010? >> it did, but it wasn't as big. and the reason i bring this up is that exit polls people,

because they're so -- they're starved for anything to bolster either side. so the slightest, you know, rumor of an exit poll showing something, and that will be on twitter. and already yesterday obama campaign said don't pay attention -- >> and there will be people who are lying. we were talking about this guy last week comfortably smug, who used to watch our show all the time and outed. he was the guy who claimed that the floor of the new york stock exchange was flooded and all this. >> so you can't really believe -- >> can't believe everything you see on twitter. >> team for the global markets report. kelly evans is standing by in london. how do do you it, kelly, are you one of these ex-pats that nails something over here and hopes that it gets over here? >> joe, i was afraid you'd ask is this question because my guilt weighs very heavily. i didn't get my act together in time. i have not cast a ballot.

>> are you old enough? >> very funny. i in fact was on twitter in 2008 for the last election. so i go back, yeah, i go back. >> but there's like four people, the same four people constantly tweeting, right, back then? >> it was the wild, wild west days of twitter. i do think you're right this time around it will be much more important and that given what we've seen with other events, how we're able to keep a lid on early reports getting out will be an interesting question. but i'll certainly be watching for any hint of what's happening. people will also be watching the dollar. european markets rebounding. broad message here, we're up half a% on europe stoxx 600 despite the fact we got pretty weak readings on eurozone growth. on uk, on germany growth, but they think maybe that means the ecb will do something more. so we're back in that weird and wonderful way of markets. want to flip over to currencies. one of the few news items that

we can can did get overnight, s st suzuki pulling out of the united states. royal bank of australia put on hold. so your australia, kran vacation is getting a little more pricey. otherwise the dollar is a little bit weaker and that will be one to watch. mitt romney is generally seen, and i'm generalizing here, but as dollar positive. you want to correlate that, watch across other asset classes, too. but that will give you a sense. euro-dollar down a tenth of a percent. so we're seeing a mixed bag. not a clear risk on risk off day. if anything, that just reflects the fact that around the world just like there in the u.s. investors are waiting for what the resulting tonight will tell us. there's a lot of uncertainty and the worst part is that we may not even know wednesday morning and we certainly won't have anymore clarity on that fiscal

cliff which i'm so sick of talking about. back over to you guys. >> are you going to get much sicker about talking about this between now and january. that's one of the things people were pointing out. if you don't have a clear winner by tomorrow and you really get into some of these digging around and going back to reco t recounts, the clock will really count down on the fiscal cliff, too. >> and to your point, there's only something like 35 working days between now and the end of the year. many fewer congressional sessions even. so there's a certain degree of logic for those worried about whether we can reach a compromise come january or who is going to be -- who emerges victorious. whether it's wednesday morning or god forbid well into next week. >> we'll get through one question of uncertainty perhaps by tomorrow morning just to have another one staring us down. >> oh, boy. >> here we go again. kelly, thank you. coming up on this election day,

we'll talk about what sectors are most likely to move on the results from the ballot box. health care, defense, financials, investment stakes and possible scenarios. and how should you position your portfolio ahead of all this. that's right after this. s. tomorrow, squawk special election coverage continues. and we're getting an early start. joe, becky and andrew will kick things off at 5:00 a.m. eastern. from the oval office to the balance of power in congress, we'll tell you what america's decision will mean for the economy and your money. don't miss "squawk box" starting tomorrow at 5:00 a.m. eastern.

welcome back. weather can play an important role in election day. it often impacts the voter turnout and that is a huge question for this election. danielle banks joins us with today's forecast plus details on that nor'easter that's threatening the east coast just as it tries to clean up from sandy. danielle, good morning. >> hi, how are you today? i know so many people are amped up about today and anticipating this day for a very long time. we've been bringing you your election forecast and up into northeastern portions of minnesota as well as northwestern wisconsin, this is where we have the snow. all of the rain pushing in for you voters around midday, so watch for that into chicagoland.

right now as we zero in, you can also notice there are quite a few icy spots right now. certainly projected off to the northeast of minneapolis. we'll take you a little bit further south, of course florida one of our swing states. and getting messier by the minute across sections of north florida and you can clearly see that that rainfall will make impacts for many of you across sections of the southeast including georgia and into the carolinas. some showery weather also for those of you in the northwest. in terms of tracking the storm system, the nor'easter that we've been talking about, this has clearly been on everyone's mind and we know how important it is to folks who want to get the latest details. once that storm system which is bringing the rain that we just showed you across the southeast begins to lift upward, we are anticipating those impacts to begin wednesday into thursday. and then thursday into thursday night, we will see some wet and wintry weather continuing, but the latest model runs are trending the system a little bit further offshore.

back to you. >> thanks, danielle. it is now a sprint to the white house this morning. investors are waiting for a level of uncertainty to be removed from the markets. at least that's the hope. joining us to talk about the different outcomes, chuck gabriel at capital alpha partners. chuck, thank you for joining us. let's go through it. handicap it for us. how do you see the election playing out right now? >> the president has a very slight advantage. nobody really knows just because the republican enthusiasm has always been a real wild card. the president closed fairly strongly by virtue of this gift with the hurricane. so we'll see. >> chuck, one of the things and i was looking through some of the notes in terms of your forecasts, there is a suggestion that president obama could win the electoral vote but lose the popular vote. what are the implications from an investment perspective if

that's the case? >> closeness will matter in our view. if the president were to really have that kind of split verdict, it gives him a very, very diminished mandate, very much like george w. bush had after the counting stopped in florida back in 2000 and al gore had won the popular vote by 540,000 votes. thanks to a lot of factor, george bush was able to ram through tax cuts at the beginning of his tenure. but he had a very tainted early presidency. and if obama actually were somehow to have that kind of very, very narrow victory and lose the popular vote, we think he'd have much less leverage and perhaps less resolve to force republicans to make concessions on raising taxes. >> does that apply to romney if the vote is close, as well? >> to shall extenome extent, bu won't take office until january 20th. so we're not talking about any

immediate tough actions from president elect romney. and his mandate is going to be -- yes, i think it would apply to romney in a sense that almost the gift of allowing him to back off some of his harder edged proposals like leaning back on the fed and china and things like that. >> that is a really interesting question, whether you would see the president sort of triangulate like people have wondered with clinton. after the 2010 rebuke, there was no humility whatsoever at that point. and the same policies were pursued for the last two years, you know, the 250 and above, letting the bush tax cuts -- all the same stuff. there was no -- didn't learn anything from 2000. zero. and i wonder whether 2012, whether you would expect anything. >> that's why it's a bit of a stretch, skroe. unlike bill clinton who moved to the center after the 1994 elections in order to win

re-election in '96, president obama hasn't done that. so it's a leap of faith to actually believe that he might move to the center after winning re-election. but on the other hand, there are those that are really pitching that line and the first real signal would be what independent koopd kind of treasury secretary he would nominate. >> cwhat's your expectation for the market reaction? >> i think if obama wins we'll at the time passed it because every ad has told us the economy is lousy. if romney win, there are those dividends of red stock, blue stock, tax reform, all of that. >> chuck, thanks for joining us. coming up, the balance of power in congress. details on key senate and house races and what role turnout demographics might play and whether there's any change on capitol hill. and then we'll bring it back to our bread and butter, concern ferry weighs in on what the results mean for all the different markets. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong.

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welcome back to "squawk box." polls are now opening in various parts of the east coast right now, some 30 million americans have already voted. cnbc's team of reporters all across the country. stationed in both battle ground states, campaign headquarters, also here at our election central.ground states, campaign headquarters, also here at our election central. mo among our guests this morning,

eric cantor, alan patricof, kevin langone. don peebles. we didn't use the word wing nut the on one side -- usually dould that. like the "wall street journal" would say conservative op-ed page whereas "new york times" is really the paper of record op-ed page basically. obama friend and -- >> no, no. >> is it a liberal op-ed page? >> yes. >> usually they don't do it that way. "washington post" is just straight news. >> new york the op-ed page and editorials would be liberal and the other side would be -- >> let's not make the show political. plus one of president bush's

right hand man on the economy, larry lindsey. he has both democratic and republican clients. and he's always very even handed. and he was picking obama all along to win. do you see he switched? >> he did? >> yes. last couple of days. for very specific reasons. and later today, don't miss a specific afternoon edition of "squawk box." we'll pick up election day coverage again at 5:00 p.m. eastern. and then 5:00 a.m. the next morning. so with have the air mattresses because of sandy and we might as well keep them. >> it will very likely be a long night by just about any count. not expect to go have a proce i projected winner by 7:00 p.m. >> you can take part following our coverage on twitter,@cnbc 2012. >> let's get a check on the markets. yesterday you did see the dow

close hire by about 19 points. this morning the futures are indicated higher once again. right now dow futures up by about 43 points. s&p 500 futures and nasdaq slightly higher, as well. and it's the same story in europe. we have seen modest gains there through the course of the morning. right now you see that in france, the cac up by about 0.7%. and germany, the dax up by 5.6%. same story with the ftse in london. in asia, the nikkei closed down modestly by about a third of a percentage point. you saw modest declines in honk c congre kong and shanghai. still very long gasoline lines in new jersey and new york where it's very difficult to get any gas at all. you can see right now that wti is up about 49 cents to $86.14. the ten year, interesting to watch. the ten year at this point is only yielding 1.712%.

some people wonder if that's any indication of where you think the election is headed. dollar has been another issue to watch in terms of the election. lowest we've seen in trading for a while. >> that's weird. that raises andrew's eyebrow a little bit. both are raised. it doesn't work. you just look silly. >> i can't really do --ky do my ear, but -- >> then raise one ear. because -- >> he just did it. oh, my gosh. >> okay, spock. >> enough of that. we have been talking about the race for the white house, we've been obsessed for the race for the white house, but would he also watching the balance of power on qulil acapitol hill an monday jafers joins us

[ and i man i don't havers [ eamon javers joining us to talk about that. >> here's the balance of power. starting off with 51 democrats and two independents who typically vote with those democrats. and you've got 47 republicans. that means that republicans on election night will need a net pickup, net/net of four seats in the u.s. senate or if romney wins the presidency, they only need three seats and that's because a vice president paul ryan would be the guy to cast the tie breaking vote in the senate. in the house, the split is 240/190 in favor of the republicans. that means democrats will need a 25 seat net gain in order to break the difference. there are five vacancies in the house of representatives right now and that's why they need a 25 seat net gain in the house of representatives there you see the split 240/190 for the democrats. so i want to talk about what's going to be the big factor at play tonight. the guys from the cook political

report had a great report that i saw yesterday talking about the demographics of this race. we've been so focused on white male, hispanic, the female vote. and what the cook guys and their analysts concluded yesterday is that in a lot of these senate and house races, it's gotten to the point where demographics are destiny. it matters so many more than actual candidate quality. so forget about the talking points and stump speeches. what they are concluding is that we're getting to a place in america where the demographics matter more than the candidates themselves. and that means if you're a white male who makes more than $75,000 who doesn't live in a city, we can be pretty sure how you'll vote almost no matter who the candidate is running in your congressional district or in your senate race. and that is going to produce a very, very polarized congress as we go into 2013. it's already polarized. you look at that blue dog coalition of moderate and conservative democrats in the house, they got cut in half last time around. we're looking for them to get

cut in half again this time around. we'll see a very polarized group and that's the group that will have to deal with this fiscal cliff issue when we get back in early january of 2013. so there will be a very different cast of characters up on capitol hill next year. >> thanks for that report. i imagine we will be seeing you throughout the day and into the night and again tomorrow morning. >> i have air mattresses over at headquarters. >> we have one saved for you. you got to blow it up. as voters are he hadding to the poll, some invest toors and tras are heading to the sidelines. kevin ferry joining us. went with the vwetter. andrew's eyebrows -- he can't do one at a time, but the dollar has been strong. it's weird. why? they say it's a romney thing. anything to read into there?

>> definitely a big story. and in-it's about a four cent move against the euro, the us aity dollaussie dollar is up, s that's stalled aboued aity dollaussie dollar is up, s that's stalled aboue it. it's really about what's going on in the other countries as we've been focused on both the election process here and then of course the hurricane. so the term structure of real rates is really what's going to dictate the longer term play for the dollar up or down. and that structure has not changed dramatically enough to support the view of a stronger dollar no matter who the president is. and so you have to watch that mix between the nominal rate and the real rate. and they're still steeply negative here in the states just as the fed wants them. >> it means it doesn't really read anything into the election on this? >> my opinion would be no, becky, to be quite frank.

i think the most conventional of conventional wisdom trades right now is the idea that bonds go up on obama and down on romney. and so you're actually just seeing keecsee kind of unwind to have to make that decision. so i think that the thing to watch going forward is really that term structure, look after we get through the election no matter who wins, watch how people's perceptions about what's happening five years or more down the road change. i like the curve steeper. >> did we start very quickly looking towards the fiscal cliff? is this a situation where if we know who the president is tomorrow morning immediately our attention focuses on this day that as kelly pointed out less than 35 days away by tomorrow? >> i'd like to believe that we could then move directly to the fact that it's not going to happen.

but, sure, i think that in the immediate term, you get jammed right back into the gridlocknd at batt and the balgtz and inefficiencies of the political process. but no matter who wins, if they address that immediately in say the first ten days post election, then we could move on. and look for something steeper. and again, i think i'm more optimistic. i think you'll see velocity of money pick up. i think you'll see borrowing pick up. some of it's influenced by the storm, but i like the way the market shapes up and i'd like to see the term structure of interest rates steepen as we come out of the election. >> all right. kevin, thanks. we'll check back with you. i was listening, but at the same time, i was looking at this "usa today" piece that romney in any of the states where domestic automakers supply all the car, the highest registration of gm

and ford car, romney's ahead in all those states. in any of the states where foreign automakers leads the registration ranks like mercedes and beamers and japanese car, obama's up. >> really? >> yes. >> completely weird and counterintuitive. >> what about michigan? >> michigan they're calling at least in this poll saying it's -- obama -- as far as michigan -- look at it. you have to go all the way to minnesota before you find a high registration domestic vehicle to get on obama. but it makes sense. the kelitists that drive all th fancy cars are all voting for-of-and guys driving the america made trucks in the rural area, they're out in the states that you've heard of but have never really bean through. >> i've been to a lot of states about. >> but fly overstates. you've flown over a lot. and probably like denzel

washington, you were inebriated as you were flying over, right? >> hopefully. >> our coverage of election day is just getting started on squawk. up next, we'll ask the manager of a $2 billion hedge fund what the outcome of the presidential race means for the markets. and then from stocks to bonds, to the broader economy, as well, later this morning we have ken lang langone, he'll talk to us about what the election will do to the corporate climate. and larry lindsey will talk to us about the potential impact on the global economy.

wall street is in wait and see mode. joining us from the swing state

of florida is garth freeson from ii chlt associa iii associates. good morning to you. you watch these markets very closely. what is the message the market is telling you right now at least about the election? >> it seems like in the last couple weeks, last two to three weeks, the markets have rae begun to discounts an obama victory and i think that's corroborated by the futures markets.to discounts an obama v and i think that's corroborated by the futures markets.discounti think that's corroborated by the futures markets. they have obama being elected by a 67% chance. >> so what does that mean -- we were talking about the dollar move and the yield on the bond. are any of those indications of that? >> i think more the movement in the bond market and the movement in the equity market in the last couple weeks have been a pretty good indication. the failure of the equity market to really respond in its typical fashion to what has been pretty

strong data whether it's the employment report last week or some of the housing data that's come out recently. normally the market would do much better in those environments or in that data. and the bond market should have sold off more. and i think the bond market's failure to sell off in its rally in the last couple weeks does indicate that the markets are indeed beginning to discount an obama victory. >> although numbers we've seen on the jobs front have come at the same time that we've had a receipt disappointing earnings outlook from a lot of companies reporting at the same time. could that be part of the situation? >> absolutely. the earnings do have an impact on the markets obviously. i think some of those earnings have been focused in particular sector, but overall, i think that the market's response, whether you look at the interest rate market or equity market, it's beginning to brace for what is likely to be a re-election by obama. and so given that scenario, i think if in fact romney does

win, the bigger movements will come from that given that's more of a surprise to the markets than the re-election. >> what kind of movements would you see? and what have you seen so far on the expectation that obama would be reelected and what would you see if romney did come up with a win? >> well, we try to look for cues from the options market in terms of what the options markets are expecting in terms of different movements. and if you look at equities, for example, and purchase options that will benefit from a movement in either direction of who wins, you'd need about a 2% movement either higher or lower to break even in your cost of options. for the cost of those options. and the interest rate side, you would need a movement of about ten basis points on the ten year rate in order to cover the cost of your options. i think, though, in an obama re-election, given that a lot of that is priced in, the conventional which isdom is tha

movement is stronger for bonds, weaker for equities. that will be offset due to positioning and just the uncertainty being over should be supportive for the markets as a whole. and i think a larger movement would come from a romney victory in which case we could see interest rates back up 20 basis points so the ten year going to, you know, less than 2%. >> okay. garth, want to thank you very much for your time this morning. and hope to speak with you again tonight. >> thanks for having me. coming up, the aftermath of super storm sandy making voting a bit more difficult than normal in parts of new york and new jersey. the state's taking unusual steps to help residents. we'll get a live report from a polling place next.

welcome back, everyone. new jersey and new york are taking steps to make sure that every resident can vote today, despite obviously some very difficult circumstances in the wake of sandy. cnbc's kayla tausche is in the hard-hit town of moonachie, and it had serious trouble with flooding. >> reporter: it did because a nearby levee broke causing many houses and buildings like borough hall, to undergo severe flooding. this hall was supposed to be the voting site but after

withstanding three to four feet of standing water inside the building that is not the case. as the town tries to rally its residents and provide alternatives to vote the first is information, several people have come to borough hall thinking this is the place to vote, residents have been texting a town mandated number to find out where it is, it is in teterboro and misfires on texts are being sent and mobile stations, going door to door with ballots never materialized so information is a big problem here. the second is transportation. due to the level of flooding that this town saw, many cars are water-logged and defunct, many residents don't have transportation and even though the town is providing some buses, some residents still feel stranded. >> i'm definitely going to shout out to people. i know two neighbors down the block wanted to vote but they

don't have cars and it's probably a mile and a half, maybe two miles to the voting booth. >> reporter: and those are the residents who have prioritized voting who make sure that they want to get out and vote come hell or high water, but many still are thinking that they can't even fathom anything besides getting their houses and their lives back together, when we asked the mayor what the biggest priority for residents here, he said just getting the garbage picked up, they can see their possession go and feel like they can start over. no question turnout in new jersey will be down. >> you have so many people still without electricity, still dealing with just the disaster that's left things there and it's getting really cold out. i noticed it was in the 20s this morning when i came into work, probably have people looking at other priorities at this point other than just election day. >> reporter: right and last night, becky, we were here in moonachie when the power came on, we heard cheers, saw residents coming out and looking

out at the street lights making sure this time it was for real because there had been a few false alarms throughout the week. that is the biggest priority, getting heat, water, getting their houses and their lives back together. some people said there's going to be another election. i know exactly when it will be, it will be in four years. >> kayla, thank you very much. we know you'll keep an eye on things for us today. we have live reports from the campaign headquarters of president obama and governor romney. the polls, the stakes and the most likely outcomes from today's election, plus we have house majority leader eric cantor making the case for change at the white house and then at 7:40 eastern the other side of the argument, private equity power player and obama support alan patricof. stay tuned. [ female announcer ] i found the best cafe in the world.

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election day 2012, your money, your vote. we're covering the issues that matter most to your money, before you head to the polls. in this hour, venture capital power player alan patricof, education, the future of business, and what this election means for the markets, house majority leader eric cantor on why mitt romney is the right man to lead the country. steve liesman on jobs and the election. and billionaire real estate mogul donald trump. it's election morning and the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> it is finally here, election day 2012, i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. this morning a look at the markets, your money and how the presidential election is going to be deciding the next four

years. house majority leader eric cantor is our special guest and one of the earlier investors in apple, alan patricof, discussing what's next for venture capital and beyond and it's tuesday, which can only mean one thing, the donald, his forecast on the election outcome and an update on his business ventures, and tonight we've got a special edition of "squawk box," our "your money your vote squawk box edition" begins at 5:00 p.m. eastern, we have a great line-up with your money in mind, mar marty feldstein, kristen rohr and you get us later today and tomorrow at 5:00 a.m. in the morning. >> we're also watching markets and at this hour the futures are indicated slightly higher. dow futures up by 47 points, nasdaq futures up by over 8 points and the s&p up by over 5 points. check of the non-election

headlines, nissan is lowering its full year profit forecast because of european weakness and sharply lower sales in china. nissan did see profits rise by 8%. thousands of greek workers have begun a two-day strike to protest a new round of government spending cuts. approval from parliament is necessary for greece to receive another round of international aid. one more jobs related stat as americans go to the polls, down to the wire, the labor department out with its monthly jolts report, a measure of job opportunities and labor turnovers and economists like ed lazear tell us these are numbers they watch closely. >> reporters are spread out all over the country, we go to phil lebeau in chicago at president obama's campaign headquarters and hampton pearson is at governor romney's headquarters in boston. phil you kind of got to stay

home, don't you live there and poor hampton we had to send him there. you got the better deal, we'll start with you, phil. >> or not. >> we lost a little bit of phil lebeau's sound there. >> you know what, i could have gone to hampton first anyway and he's the one that traveled further, i should have just to defer to you, hampton. hopefully we can hear you. why don't you start. >> reporter: how are you doing, joe? number one the polls just opened a few minutes ago in boston, massachusetts, expecting something like a 70% turnout. governor romney wrapped up his last full day of campaigning in manchester, new hampshire, the four electoral votes are really up for grabs between him and president barack obama. romney basically reminding folks that this is where his campaign began 18 months ago, and making one last plea for their votes today. >> and tomorrow, your votes and

your work right here in new hampshire will help me become the next president of the united states. >> reporter: now mitt romney literally has miles to go before we see him behind that podium on this stage. he's actually going to, number one, vote in nearby belmont, a boston suburb in about an hour and a half and go back to cleveland and pittsburgh for two last minute, if you will, election day occurrences, a rare occurrence but again nothing about this particular presidential race has gone the conventional wisdom route if you will. joe, back to you. >> belmont, i know exactly where that is, kind of a semiblue collar area near arlington, one of the stops on the "t." let's try to get to -- thank you, hampton, and phil's going to do a chicago accent which comes pretty naturally to him,

phil. can we hear you now? >> reporter: oh, you bet, joe, you can hear me now the accent and all. the stage is set here at mccormick place for what the obama campaign thinks will be a victory speech late, late tonight or perhaps tomorrow. the president back in chicago, last night des moines, iowa, late night, sort of fitting that's where he wrapped up his campaign, given the fact six years ago he announced his candidacy in des moines. the president campaigned in wisconsin, ohio, iowa, bruce springsteen and jay-z performed at the events yesterday and the president obama said let's finish what we started six years ago. >> i've come back to iowa one more time to ask for your vote. i came back to ask you to help us finish what we've started.

>> reporter: now the event tonight here at mccormick place is far different than in 2008, when an estimated 240,000 people were outdoors at grant park here in downtown chicago in a far different atmosphere. an estimated 10,000 people are expected at today's private rally here in chicago, most of the people here are going to be campaign volunteers, supporters of president obama. it's an invitation only rally, and at this point, we should point out where the president is today he flew in late last night, staying at a hotel downtown chicago, they'll do some tv and radio interviews around the country, he'll also play basketball is his tradition on election day. guys, we're going to be here all day long and it will be interesting to see how late tonight it is when we finally hear from president obama. guys, back to you. >> phil, what's the expectation? we talked a little bit earlier about how romney is going to be campaigning on this last day, that's traditionally not what

the candidates do. >> right. >> was there ever any question that president obama would do the same or this is his routine and he's sticking with it? >> i think there were some questions about whether or not he would do that once the romney campaign announced that it was going to do a couple of last-minute apeerntss today but they've already got the tv and radio interviews so in that sense they are campaigning albeit not with rallies in the swing state and as the president has done every election day going back to when he was going through the primaries for the democratic nomination in 2008, he likes to play basketball. it's a superstition of his, play basketball on election day. he's here in chicago and i think they believe that they have run an effective campaign and these final interviews today is the last really bit of business that they have to attend to. >> phil, thank you very much. phil and hampton, we will be checking back in withboth of you throughout the day and night as well. besides the election the other story everyone's talking about, we've got another east coast storm that's brewing just

one week after superstorm sandy caused major damage up and down the east coast. the weather channel's danielle banks has the latest. >> hi, guys, we understand everybody is really concerned about this especially because so much has been done to get the power back on. we realize there are still thousands of customers without power and of course facing those outages again is something nobody wants to deal with. we want you to be aware of the rain and the wind scenario and the snow scenarios which will be substantiated further inland. however there have been some changes we want to you know about in terms of the latest model runs they are taking the system a bit further offshore than what we were talking about 24 hours ago yesterday, so that could mean less coastal impacts. it is not going to mean no rain and no wind. we could still see some 40-mile-per-hour gusts and of course, it is a cool day, leading into tomorrow. these impacts are coming into tomorrow, now the winds could pick up, gusting over 50 miles

an hour, as we get into tomorrow night, around new york city and remember, gusts are different than sustained winds, but we still could have a few flare-ups when it comes to the winds, even into thursday, and then of course we'll continue to keep tabs on the timing in other locations, including coastal new jersey, which we realize and have been seeing so very hard hit. the rain develops later in the morning, as we get into tomorrow, the heavier rain arrives later into the evening, and we are anticipating some minor coastal flooding, and then in terms of when the system exits we are still going to have a few showers lingering late into thursday, but the storm system at that stage is going to be trekking a lot further off to the north. so what happens for our friends in coastal massachusetts? again, we don't see the rain here until around midafternoon tomorrow, but it does get a lot heavier into wednesday night. some of the gusts here could be a little bit higher earlier in the game. we're going to be talking about

tomorrow night, winds gusting over 60 miles an hour and certainly anticipating some coastal flooding and then again we will still have some of those high wind gusts leading over into thursday, so we're trying to break it down for you, specific area by specific area and you can always find that information as well on weather.com. back to you. >> danielle, thank you very much. we have been waiting for some of the candidates to make their way to polling stations. this is vice president joe biden he's standing in line in greenville, delaware, where he'll be casting his vote shortly. greenville is a community that's just outside, it's a suburb of wilmington, delaware, also a lot of people who live there work in the philadelphia area as well. >> he's campaigning on that line, trying to get some last-minute votes there. >> hmm. >> well this is alexis i. dupont high school in greenville, delaware. his wife is standing next to him as well, and looks like a strong turnout, waiting in line right there, they'll be casting their votes momentarily.

guys let's talk about some of the other headlines that are out there today, some of the business news headlines, australia's central bank holding rates steady at 3.25%. policymakers citing higher inflation at home and improved global environment. the central bank still left the door open for more stimulus if needed. tens of thousands of greek workers beginning a 48-hour strike today protesting a new round of austerity cuts. the unions say that the changes will devastate the poor and drive a failing economy to collapse. and a new survey says that chinese consumers put prospects for jobs and income at the lowest level in a year. the fastest growing worries include concerns about career choices and job security. back here in the united states san francisco fed president john williams says the central bank could buy more treasuries than it is currently purchasing without disrupting the market. is he not advocating for the purchase of more long-term treasuries. the fed is currently buying them at $85 billion a month. the current treasury buying program ends in december.

also in some corporate news nyse euro reporting better than expected earnings this morning. revenue fell a little short but the world's largest exchange operating cited weakening trading in the united states and europe. if you have any comments or questions, e-mail us at squawk@cnbc.com. follow us on twitter @squawkcnbc is our handle. up next we have eric khanton on jobs, and what's ahead for america. and the futures are indicated higher on this election tuesday. right now the dow futures up by 45 minutes, s&p futures higher by just over 4.5. tonight, your money, your vote, a special election edition of "squawk box" from 5:00 to 7:00 p.m. eastern. joe, becky and andrew will bring you the latest polling news from across the country. plus interviews with business leaders and investors, and

reports from the swing states. special election edition of "squawk box" starting tonight at 5:00 p.m. eastern. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future. how they'll live tomorrow. for more than 116 years, ameriprise financial has worked for their clients' futures. helping millions of americans retire on their terms. when they want. where they want. doing what they want. ameriprise. the strength of a leader in retirement planning. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you one-to-one. together for your future. ♪

♪ welcome back, everybody. you can see vice president joe biden standing in line to cast his vote. this is the first of several we're going to be watching through the course of the morning. president obama voted already last thursday, it's a sign of early voting, how it's been taking place in greater and greater numbers across the country. later this morning, we are expecting mitt romney, the presidential candidate to be voting in belmont, which is a suburb just outside? >> just outside boston, kind of a bit of a blue collar suburb. it's not one of the real affluent wellesley type places or lexington or something like that. >> paul ryan a little bit later. >> he was wheels down in janesville, wisconsin, in the wee hours of the morning. he'll be voting from home as well. vice president joe biden standing in line to cast his vote in greenville, delaware. the big question, can governor

romney take the battleground state of virginia? joining us is house majority leader eric cantor of virginia. eric we guess you've been watching this very closely. what are you expecting at this point? >> well, big day here, becky, in virginia, and early anecdotal evidence in and around the seventh district which is what i represent and running for re-election, turnout is brisk already, the polls have been open a little bit more than an hour. so we are expecting a really good day for mitt romney and a great day for george allen as well in virginia. >> how big does early voting play in terms of the role it plays in virginia? >> virginia is not an early voting state. we are an absentee ballot state and there is some absentee balloting going on but the trends in the absentee balloting indicate the kind of turnout we saw in '08 is not going to be reflected this year, and especially in the localities that obama had been very strong in, in the northern virginia area that, kind of absentee

balloting was not in any way shape or form nearing what it was four years ago >> leader cantor, we are already expecting that no matter what happens tomorrow, we hope we'll have some sort of answer in terms of who the president is tomorrow morning, but we are already expecting that people are going to turn quickly to the fiscal cliff, something like 35 days to go before we have that deadline approaching. has there been any progress made in terms of maybe kicking that can down the road or at least trying to make sure there's some sort of agreement that's reached before then? >> well, you know, becky, so much of that depends on how we resolve that, depends on who wins this election, and that's why i believe strongly that mitt romney is going to win, because if you look at it, the fiscal cliff, what that means to the working people in this country and investors, their capital gains rates were going up, their dividend rates were going up, their marginal rates are going up, the death taxes are going up. marriage penalty taxes are going to come back in, so there's so many negative impacts in terms of going over this fiscal cliff,

and mitt romney has said that he doesn't want to see tax rates go up on anybody, and would support an extension of existing rates, so it would give congress time to engage in real tax reform, which we've all been talking about, bringing down rates, simplifying the code, filling in those loopholes so we can get back to basics in terms of investors acting out of economics and not trying to gain the system through the tax code. >> what happens if president obama is reelected? >> well again, i do think that this election is about taxes, which is why i believe mitt romney will win, because people believe lowering tax rates allows for small businesses and investors to get back into the game. if for some reason that doesn't happen, yes, we have consistently said we will work with the white house. we have tried to work with the white house over the last several years, but there has been so many times which we have failed to come on agreement, and

i think after this election the country is ready for all of to us come together and try to get some results so we can get america back to work. >> what can you tell us, give us real insight leader cantor into virginia. president obama was the first democrat to win in 44 years. you would think that any viable challenger would have, on the republican side would have a pretty good shot in virginia, if he was to eventually take over the white house. do you know internal numbers right now? do you know anything you can tell us? where do you think virginia really is? >> look t is close, joe. it really is. obviously our state has been a growing state. it's increasingly diversifying in terms of his demographics. we've had an economy that has outperformed the national average pretty significantly. we have a huge defense element in this state. 19% of our jobs come from defense spending, especially in the two largest metropolitan areas, the one up around warm wash and the one in hampton

roads, norfolk and virginia beach. the defense spending is a big deal. it means jobs in virginia. >> you got a republican governor and so when, will exit polls tell us anything? that was some pretty interesting anecdotal evidence you gave about the difference between four years ago. do you think that that is significant? >> i do. i think it's very significant, and we're going to watch the areas where the defense spending means a lot, because this president has not demonstrated a willingness to go in and remove these massive defense cuts, which means huge layoffs in some of the areas of this state, but yes, joe, i think, and i've been here on the ground. i was with mitt romney and paul ryan within the last week. the enthusiasm on our side is off the charts. people are very excited to go to the polls to effect change. >> since 2010, the tea party fervor, is it at the same level

that showed the historic results in 2010 or has it waned? >> if you watch what happened in our state, '08, 44-year record of going for a republican nominee flipped, but then the following year we elected governor bob mcdonnell with i think it was a 24% swing in the electorate, which demonstrates our state really is a center right state, and the state saw that the extreme agenda that was put in place by the obama administration especially from the economy through the stimulus and the dodd-frank attempt in passage, that was not something that met with voter approval, and what we saw last year in virginia was an electorate that went once again for a republican majority in our state senate, and i think you are going to see yet again our enthusiasm premised on fiscal prudence, getting the budget under control and getting the economy going again because it's all about jobs. >> leader action i don't know if you saw "60 minutes" on sunday,

steve kroft did a piece about the dysfunction in washington. thinking about the next four years, do you have any more hope today than you did before that no matter who wins you guys are going to be able to get together and start making some deals? >> we've got to. nobody wants to see taxes going up on anybody on our side. you no he that, andrew. we don't believe that that's the prescription right now to give washington more money, when you haven't fixed the spending problem. and i do think that this election will be a turning point, hopefully, and i believe that mitt romney is going to get elected, and he is a demonstrated leader who is a republican in massachusetts, was able to say to both sides, now let's sit down, let's cast aside our differences and focus on where we can go in common. that's the spirit we've got to come out of this election with because i don't think any of us want to see america go through another four years of the way

we've been going without the kind of growth and innovation and investor confidence that we so desperately need to get us back on track. >> leader cantor, we thank you for your time this morning. we know it's a busy morning and we do appreciate your coming by. >> thank you. >> gee, it will be interesting. bush won by eight points both times and even on real clear right now the average is obama's up by 0.3%. >> marvin bearer but it's interesting. >> yeah, within the margin of margin of error, margin of error. much more on the markets as the election rolls on, on "squawk box." still to come, innovator, investor and one of the early pioneers of the venture capitalist, alan patricof talks business and the election. "squawk box" will be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what popular hip-hop song by artist robert matthew van winkle topped the bill board hot 100

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popular hip-hop song by artest matthew van winkle topped the billboard top 100 list in 1990? the answer "ice, ice baby" by vanilla ice. >> aflac! still to come we have donald trump, ken langone, don peebles and larry lindsay. "squawk box" will be right back. up next, an original investor in apple, alan patricof has a knack for making great business decisions. find out how this election will shape the markets from one of the smartest guys in venture capital. "squawk box" is back after a quick break. up your game. up the ante. and if you stumble, you get back up. up isn't easy, and we ought to know. we're in the business of up. everyday delta flies a quarter of million people

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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. the polls are open, in the 2012 presidential election is officially under way. in keeping with tradition the polls opened in dixville notch, new hampshire last night. ten votes were cast and the votes were evenly split between president obama and challenger

mitt romney. finra is investigating alleged securities that unauthorized tradings and shares of apple led the firm to seek out financial firm. details on the financial status will be coming shortly. american suzuki is filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. the company is the only distributor of the suzuki brand in the united states. it will continue to sell motorcycles, all terrain vehicles and outboard boat engines. boosting confidence in small business has been a main topic of debate this campaign season. joining us is alan patricof, long time innovator and advocate for venture capital, an early investor in apple and aol and created one of the world's leading private equity firms, apac with $35 billion in assets under management and an obama

supporter. we are here on election day, thanks for being here. >> thanks for inviting me. >> you're an advocate for small business. there's been an argument around this table often among ceos and others that governor romney would do better for small business. why are you an obama guy on this issue? >> you know, small businesses, there's such an amorphous group, everybody focuses on the issue. i ran the white house conference small business commission, which people have forgotten, almost 20 years ago under president clinton and i brought together 25,000 small business people from around the country, and what you find out is everybody has a different thing that they're have on their mind because if they are in true small business and by true small business, those who think parochially in the local sense, who are a drugstore, shoe shine store, et cetera, their problems are far different than the small businesses that make up the innovators and the high growth companies. >> right. >> and nothing bad about one or

the other, so they're totally different constituencies. i think that the things that are on their minds are different. >> right, we're going to have donald trump on in a moment and he often talks about -- >> he's not a small businessman. >> he is actually a small businessman in some ways. he and others often talk about the tax implications for small business, the individual rate which impacts small business. ing do you think that matters? >> i have come to the conclusion in backing small businesses of every size from startup to much larger that the change in tax rates has very little impact on what people, how people behave and i have spent a fair amount of time talking to people even in the last several months, they're not going to not start a business. they're not going to not expand the business because interest rates are higher. even the so-called venture capitalists like myself and private equity people who are complaining all over the place about carried interest rates going up, which we've talked about, it's not going to have

any impact on what, how they behave. >> then why have we kept the rates low over the last couple of years? we keep striking agreements on both sides of the aisle to keep the rates low. >> the rates have had very little impact, virtually none in terms of people starting business and glowing businesses. i think that for the first small business is access to credit has been important. my kind of companies, the ones that are venture backed, use virtually no debt capital. it's almost all 100% equity financed. >> what about regulations and health care, things like that? >> regulations are a different story. people who have to deal with the epa every time they want to move, who are concerned about what is going on in health care, i think that health care costs are an impact, have an impact and i this i that obama, and i didn't come on here just to promote obama versus romney, i think obama has put in obama

care affordable care act, i think there are many features that protect small businesses, if you're under 50 employees, you're under 25 employees, you really are pretty much removed from all of the problems. >> that might make you want to keep it at 49 employees. might make you hesitant to go above that and add jobs if it means you're now all of a sudden -- >> one of the advantages, i was talking to our companies yesterday, one of the best parts is he hires a lot of young people and now all the people who are under 25 that he's hired, of which most of them are, are all staying with their parents. >> so you see people, just on a couple days ago, companies that used to do full time are now going to part-time because they don't want to do health care for full time so they switch the business model to favor part-time. >> you know, honestly, i would say that may be true for a lot of the larger companies. i see so many small businesses, i was out in california yesterday, i must have met in

four days with eight of our companies, and i asked every one of them, what impact does this have? what difference is it going to make whether romney wins or obama? i honestly believe it's almost a neutral element in terms of the young companies. when they are growing and they are excited and their product is being taken up, and most of them that i'm dealing with are internet or wireless based, it's an environment you don't stop hiring. in fact they have big open to buys. >> so what does affect those companies? what are they looking at beyond their own home base? >> i think the general environment will have an impact. i think that the tone of the top will have an impact. i think my personal feeling, the biggest impact for the kind of companies i'm in are what happens for advertising expenditures. i think advertising and advertising -- >> you talked about immigration policy as well. >> sorry, thank you, thank you. immigration policy is getting the kind of people, everyone is frustrated with the idea of people being trained in this country, and then being forced to leave afterwards.

>> do you think that -- >> that would have a big impact. >> if obama were to win do you think you'd get a change on that policy? >> i think it almost has to come. >> do you think if romney wins he gets a change in the policy? >> i think it almost has to come. there's such a dramatic need for talented young people. i forget the nun of hundreds of thousands. it's over 100,000 people who are trained, get their degrees and then are forced to leave the country. >> that's a stupid policy. >> it's crazy. >> absolutely. no, it is crazy. >> that's what we need. >> alan patricof thank you for coming in. what time are you going to vote? do you know your polling place? >> of course i do. i was afraid i wouldn't get back so i voted by mail and i'm frustrated because i love the experience of going in and actually casting my ballot. and i found out it's not like the proxy rules, ken langone told me it's not like the proxy rules, you can't, if you vote by proxy, you can supersede your proxy and give a new proxy. if you voted by mail, you can't go in and vote by person so i

can't vote. i did it once. >> good for you. thank you for coming in. >> vote early, vote often. coming up, more talk about jobs and the election, could the employment situation in america decide who will win the white house? senior economics reporter steve liesman has that, coming up next. . tomorrow, "squawk" special election coverage continues, and we're getting an early start. joe, becky and andrew will kick things off at 5:00 a.m. eastern. from the oval office to the ballots of power in congress, we'll tell you what america's decision will mean for the economy and your money. don't miss "squawk box," starting tomorrow at 5:00 a.m. eastern. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,

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this was supposed to be an election about jobs, jobs, and jobs, but will it be? senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us with exclusive polling data on how much unemployment matters and steve, yesterday you told us that even though the old axiom has always been it's the economy, stupid, its that's not necessarily the case this time. >> this is astonishing to me. let's do history before we do the data. five incumbent presidents have stood for re-election with unemployment rates north of 7%.

see how they fared, look at two metrics, gerald ford a 7.7 unemployment rate in the october before the election, 0.7 percentage decline, he lost by two percentage points. jimmy carter we don't have to say much about that, both the high level and the location of the change, up 1.5 in the one year prior he lost in a landslide. ronald reagan faced 7.4% unemployment rate but a big decline in the 12 months before, he won by 18 percentage points and also had strong growth going into it, about 7% of real gdp, average growth in the prior four quarters and george bush a slight uptick, lost by six percentage points. this is what it's all about, 18 months of campaigning, several billion dollars all just to fill in the three question marks here. president obama, a one percentage point decline in the unemployment rate leading up. what does the data show how the unemployment are going to vote? did challenger mitt romney succeed in making this an election about job creation?

here's from the nbc "wall street journal" poll, 48-47 is where we are in terms of likely voters and their choices with a slight lead within the margin of error for obama. how about the people who are unemployed. we asked in the nbc/"wall street journal" poll for cnbc, have you been unemployed or somebody in your household been unemployed in the last four years? no change at all. almost the same exact look as the electorate in general. if somebody in your household was unemployed a slight edge for romney. if you yourself are unemployed a slight edge for obama. nothing to write home about. let's look at some of the swing states quickly. what we find is change and level are in play in all of these states. colorado relatively high rate, 8%, a slight decline. iowa, low rate and a decline but that seems to be in play. ohio is the one everybody will be concentrating on, a big decline and a rate around the national average. what's interesting, the white states right here, they're all

blue states, the ones with some of the highest unemployment rates and biggest changes are not in play. here is the national average on all this stuff and how the swing states compare. 12 months change, how about the swing states? swing states are a little bit lower in the overall unemployment rate. we know that the unemployment rate, the decline has something that perhaps has kept obama in the game. without it, we'd be talking about.9 and rising, probably a landslide the other way. the high level of unemployment has been romney's opportunity and the question we're going to answer after today is, did romney exploit this. we look at this combined and created a metric of the worst states for unemployment and the change, only number 40 and 42, colorado, are seen as in play by our political correspondent john harwood. of the best states, ohio and iowa are in play. it's out there, an important factor but i don't think, becky, that the data show that unemployment and jobs are going to be a decisive factor.

>> we had jack welch on yesterday and he said maybe the difference is this time around if people are unemployed, maybe they're leaning more towards the president because they think they're more likely to have an extension of unemployment benefits or more help. >> i think that's probably accurate, becky, but the question becomes did the challenger, mitt romney, offer the better opportunity, which is you know what? i can get you off the government dole and get you a job. again that's where we look at the exit polls to see how much that played a factor here. >> we'll be able to judge this perfectly with hindsight but steve, thank you very much. >> right, my pleasure. >> we'll see you later this morning. when we come back business leader, innovator and home depot co-founder ken langone will join us at the top of the hour. "squawk" will be right back. still to come, trump calling, the donald speaks to "squawk box" for the final time before the results start rolling in. his views on what matters to your money is just ahead, and at the top of the hour, businessman and home depot co-founder ken

langone joins us for the remained der of the shder of th. it's your money, your vote, only on "squawk box." when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers...

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election day is here and it's a sprint to the finish. we know which way our next guest is casting his ballot but what does he think. donald trump is on the u.s. in line. how confidence do you think the ballot you cast will help romney win? >> it's going to be, joe, a very, very close election, possibly record-setting.

somebody said to me the other day you might have six floridas of a few years ago which was a disaster but it's going to be a very, very close election and very important election. >> it's, i don't know whether the tone matters from the people that we're talking to, but the people that are backing president obama say he's going to win. the people that are backing candidate romney, governor romney are saying it's going to be a close election. i don't know what that means. >> well, joe, it's all words right now. we're at the point where we'll find out probably tonight, maybe tomorrow, and maybe in a week from now. lot of people don't understand, this thing could go a long time before we find out who the winner is but it's going to be very close. i think people have great hope, and probably they have great hope on both sides, but you know, i happen to be backing mitt romney. i think he'd be a great president. >> i wonder with nate silver, i don't know what his algorithm is, he bumped up to 92% at this point intrade has been ticking up throughout the morning, it's above 70% now.

i wonder what factors could cause someone to be wrong, what -- you know, any side, whatever they're not looking at, what could be the wild card in all this? i guess it's enthusiasm or turnout or i've even seen lately somebody will usually in the past there are more, people identify themselves as democrats more frequently, and in some recent data, it's actually come up with people that identified themselves as republicans. i don't know what it could be. i don't know what the wildcard could be. >> mitt romney has had great enthusiasm over the last couple of days. the enthusiasm has been amazing, and i've watched this and i've seen it firsthand, and the enthusiasm has been incredible. pennsylvania yesterday and places that in theory weren't going to go republican, now look like they have a good chance of going republican. there has been amazing enthusiasm. i think more so than obama. now obama had great enthusiasm four years ago. he doesn't have that same enthusiasm, but he's got a built-in constituency, so we'll

see what happens. i do think the storm took some juice away from the republican party because you know, for four days, five days, they weren't talking about obama's record. so the storm really helped obama a lot, in my opinion, in terms of no matter what the outcome, the storm has been a big help to obama. >> donald, one of the questions i asked eric cantor earlier in the show was given the remarkable sense of dysfunction in washington, does it get better after this election no matter who wins, it's obviously been very partisan from all sides. do you have any feeling that people who are on one side of this or the other side of this are going to come together at all post election, no matter who is elected? >> well, it's such a great question and it's really the question of the day. what's going to happen despite who gets elected, what's going to happen isaa hatred in washington as incredible, like people have probably never seen before. i actually think something will happen. i think they're going to sit down, and don't forget, we talk

about the cliff and we talk about the tax increases, the bush things end and we're going to have some tremendous tax increases, and that gives you a great point at which to negotiate taxes, which is a big one, and i think that frankly at the end of this election, people are going to sit back and they're going to talk and i think they're going to get along for at least a period of time, but there's tremendous divisiveness, tremendous division. i've never seen -- i've been in politics for a long time. i've never seen division and hatred like there is right now. i do think after the election, things will happen. >> and in a really close race, neither side is going to feel that -- one side is just going to miss, one side will be so close and just miss and that's not going to change any of their minds about whether they were right or wrong on who they're supporting. >> the problem is they'll be thinking about in four years from now how am i going to look and what's this vote going to do to me. so many of the votes are based

on how am i going to look and it's not for the good of the country. it's my next grace, which is in two years or four years and what happens if i do this, even if it's the right thing it will hurt me politically. it's a problem, there's no question about it. i do believe something will happen. i can't believe it can remain like this, because we really have a dysfunctional government. >> donald, you're absolutely right, this feels like the longest campaign ever. >> unbelievable. >> i hope we don't start campaigning for 2016 next week. what do you think has to happen to really change that? how do we help focus the politicians on really finding solutions to these huge problems? >> well i do think this, becky, the end of the bush tax cuts is coming to an end, and the taxes are going to raisin credibly, and nobody can allow that to happen, because we're in a very, very fragile economy and i see it. i see people looking for jobs. i don't believe the 7.8 and 7.9 numbers at all. i see how fragile it is. i see how weak it is.

i see how well other countries are doing, brazil and china and opec nations and so many others. they're doing so well and i see what's happening to us. so they can't allow the bush tax cuts, you know, something has to be done. and i think they'll be forced actually forced to sit down and negotiate some kind of compromise, and hopefully it's going to be the right compromise. >> i wonder if the president were to be reelected and he didn't have that, you know, his base or the people that were so vociferous last time that he did the extension, donald, for the high end, let all of them extend, i wonder if he at this point would say you know what? it's not the right time for anyone's taxes to go up. i wonder if he would do that or whether he's made so many promises to raise them if he couldn't do that. if the house is still controlled by republicans it will be tough to get them to go along. >> or worse he'll sit back and do nothing, i never have to run again, i'll let the tax cuts disappear.

it's going to be very fragile and dangerous out there. hopefully people can get together, but i would really say that they probably will, to an extent, but not like we have to have them get together. >> and i bet you, we think that the economy is going to do well either way is what we're hearing because of housing and because of a lot of other things, no matter who gets in, it's going to do better. i wonder if it would be, you know, i wonder if he would be all about jobs or once again it's going to happen on its own and transform certain parts of society like health care. >> only time will tell. >> donald trump thank you. >> thank you, joe. coming up, guess who is coming to the table, called the president/unpresidential businessman and co-founder of home depot, ken langone will join us as he makes his way to the set and then we've got a man who will disagree with ken's take on the president's performance, peebles corporation ceo don peebles talks the election, "squawk box" is coming

back with a big debate after this.

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ken langone on the importance of today's election. >> i can't believe the american people buy into what's coming out of washington. this is not america, as i understand it. >> plus, the impact on the markets and the economy, and we'll get live reports from the swing states that could decide the presidential race. the third hour of "squawk box" starts right now. >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin, and we have a big election day line-up for you this hour, ken langone is our guest host. he's going to be watching the election returns tonight with governor romney. he's headed to boston from here. also we're going to talk to don peebles, a top democratic fund-raiser and obama supporter and larry lindsey will join us to run through the election contingencies through the markets and the economy.

270 electoral votes are needed to win. nbc news shows president obama with 243 votes and romney 206, 89 votes in the tossup column. we'll be watching closely all night. quick look at the markets ahead of all of this, the u.s. equity futures are slightly higher, they lost some of their gains. the dow futures up by about 25 points, s&p futures and the nasdaq futures are indicated slightly higher. overseas in asia we did see in tokyo the nikkei closing down slightly and korea the kospi up by close to 2% and in europe modest gains throughout most of the morning, that's continuing right now. >> today's presidential election could come down to one key swing state but will a close vote in ohio mean court battles like the ones we saw in florida in the 2000 election? cnbc's scott cohn joins us from columbus, ohio. good morning to you, scott. >> reporter: good morning, andrew. it could be if it's a close race

that ohio 2012 makes florida looks like child's play. say what you will at enthusiasm, here at ohio state university the youth vote is turning out, lined up half an hour before the polls opened at 6:30 eastern time this morning. the line is moving but moving slowly but they are indeed here. how important is ohio? president obama joined by bruce springsteen and jay-z appeared before about 15,000 supporters at a rally in town town columbus yesterday afternoon. governor romney appeared at an airport rally, olympic figure skater scott hamilton and golfer jack nicklaus providing the star power. along with the armies of campaign worker answer supporters are armies of lawyers already legal battles out if here in ohio, the latest involves this, this is the paperwork that accompanies a provisional ballot.

dl is a court case pending. if there is a close race, 50,000 votes on either side it could all come down to this. >> provisional ballots are the main thing the parties and candidates fight over in the event we have a close election that comes down to ohio so provisional ballots will be the hanging chad punch hard ballots of 2012. >> reporter: the man who is supposed to make it run snoot y smoothly, john husted a republican. he insists he's just trying to ensure this election is fair. >> you can vote starting 35 days out in ohio. i sent every single voter an

absentee ballot request so you didn't have to leave home to vote in this election and we are doing frankly a really good job of treating everybody fairly. >> reporter: those provisional ballots go to voters who for whatever reason have their eligibility questioned. the issue is who fills out the form that validates the voter's i.d., that's one of the issues here and the provisional ballots, they can't start counting them under ohio law until ten days after the election. so it could be if it comes down to those provisional ballots, about 200,000 provisional ballots were filed in 2008, that we could be looking at voting continued to be counting here up until thanksgiving and a quick note, joe, about how the results will come out, the first results we'll hear from ohio tonight when the polls close at 7:30 eastern is the absentee ballots, likely to break for the democrats, if past is prologueed

so a initial big surge for president obama and the election results and governor romney is expected to catch up. the request he is how does it wind up. >> scott, i was walking in this morning and couldn't hear you, it said ohio the next florida and i thought it was a global warming, forecasting you could move there, but that was not -- >> sunny, humid, warm. >> how do you get the beaches? we have the banks of ohio. >> you have lake erie, too. >> or the cuyahoga river, but you don't want to get burned if you go up -- anyway, that's not what you meant. >> cuyahoga is much cleaner now. >> that's what you always say. it's nice that you stick up for that. >> it's all cleaned up. >> the ohio is still brown, gross. joining us for the next hour to talk about this election from the business perspective is ken langone, home depot, co-founder, chairman and president of invamed associates. we'll talk about your great

charity and the langone medical center in a second. you're going to be with the governor tonight. >> yes, i am. >> and you are, how many electoral votes is he going to win? >> i think 300 or more. >> which states is, in your view will he pick? >> pennsylvania was gone a week a ago. it's now in play, wisconsin, iowa, this, believe me, the electoral college goes both ways, and i think the fact that a sitting president hasn't got 50%. >> in approval rating? >> the votes. >> the votes in one poll i think he has it. >> the only poll that matters is the poll that's happening today and whatever happens we're going to survive as a country. the important thing to me is that if the president wins, gets reelected he's going to have to understand he doesn't have a mandate. he does not have a mandate.

>> does romney have a mandate, if you beat an incumbent sitting president, then do you have a mandate? >> no. >> neither will. >> no, but what do we have to address? we have to address the fiscal challenges to this country. you look at how much further in the hole every day with the state pension funds with no returns on their assets. this is not a time for etiology. this is a time for accounting and economists and math. and all i can say is whoever wins, dear god, let them be the greatest president we ever had because we're going to need that. we're going to need it badly. >> do you think it's likely that the fiscal cliff will focus both sides and make them come together? i've been surprised by how some of the rhetoric changed. seems like both sides realize you have a huge looming issue. >> the worst thing i heard and pardon me, i'm partisan, got my

romney button on, my american flag, i love america, i love everything we stand for. i never ever heard before in my life, using a vote for revenge. that is a very ugly thing to say. >> what do you mean? >> that's what the president said. we don't need -- if we're ever going to come together, we need to do it now. i got to tell you something, by the way, i watched jack yesterday morning. he's unbelievable. >> jack welch. >> he is, you know, he's a remarkable human being. he's reason. he's thoughtful. he's got the facts at hands. if you listen to his logic it's time to get down to business. >> ken, here's a question for you.. >> go ahead. >> there may be swing voters still watching figuring out what to do. you said i'm fiscally conservative, socially liberal. >> right. >> i don't think ultimately that

romney is actually that conservative on the social issues. am i wrong or right on that? i think there's still people watching this morning who are still waffling. >> i think romney is the no going to be the right nut people want to paint him to be. look what he did in massachusetts. you know, let's understand something. this president had nothing on his cv, if we could have seen a cv. i had a girl in yesterday, i was interviewing to go to bucknell, i'm asking her about her grades, it's a logical and fair question, i'm asking her about a.c.t.s, s.a.t.s, or whatever it is. why wouldn't a president apply for a job four years ago and then say oh by the way, you can't know anything about me. this is wrong but the bigger thing to me is we know we no

executive experience at all and he's proving it. >> let me lighten this up for a minute. >> go ahead. >> scott finished with that in ohio since there are so many ballots early on absentee they'll favor obama so don't initially look at the big lead for obama permanent. this guy writes in, maybe i shouldn't say it "obama is expected to take an early lead until the republicans get off work." that's bad, right. >> that is bad. >> can i change the subject and talk about something that's -- >> you can't help it. even you. i didn't write it. i just retweeted it. i didn't write it. >> your delivery gave me a laugh. >> no, i was sitting here and he was talking and i started laughing about. >> you guys ought to go on it "saturday night live." >> the at the rate we're going we should be. >> when i was diagnosed with pneumonia a week ago sunday. >> which we can't believe. we're so glad you're doing well.

>> my wife is taking wonderful care of me. >> you look fantastic. >> i feel wonderful. when i got taken to the hospital -- i took myself -- it was an act of god, and i'll tell you why. can you imagine the bums i give them some money and they throw me out? >> as sandy lost power. >> i walked down -- i was doing better, i walked down 11 flights of steps and i watched a miracle happen. i watched people around a big table with blankets around the head of the hospital, the head of nursing, everybody, doctors, cops, firemen, ems people, 280 people, let me tell you two stories. little baby born three months premature, open heart surgery, the picture was there with them taking this baby down with the tubes and wires. man whose heart had failed and needed exterior support, 280

people, they're all alive, we didn't just place them. we made sure that they went to a hospital for the service they needed. so if you acardiovascular hospitals and by the way the other hospitals were wonderful, they cooperated with us. it was a wonderful experience in humanity helping humanity and i'm so proud to say i have a small part of that place. >> and everyone was okay. >> everybody lived. they're all alive today. by the way the week before that friday we took 350 people and got them out and sent them home and we took everybody and put them up on the upper floors. we took them down on sleds. i watched this. honest to god you want to feel good about new york and america and you want to feel good about human beings, i wish you could have seen that. >> we're glad you're here to tell us about that. >> i'm kavelling, that means i'm proud. >> absolutely.

>> is cavelling, italian or yiddish. >> it's italian. you jews steal everything we do good. i can't understand it. we have a great idea, we have a great name, you co-opt it. stop it. >> it's all cockamamie to me. >> you're jewish? >> what do you think? coming up more from ken langone and don peebles will tell us why president obama has a better record on taxes and small business than governor romney and larry lindsey his final call on the presidential race, next, still ahead. tonight, your money, your vote. special election edition of "squawk box" from 5:00 to 7:00 p.m. eastern. joe, becky and andrew will bring you the latest polling news from across the country. plus interviews with business leaders and investors, and reports from the swing states. special election edition of "squawk box," starting tonight at 5:00 p.m. eastern.

just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.

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welcome back to "squawk box" on this election day. take a look at futures, dow looks like it would open up about 28 points higher, s&p 500 up two points and the nasdaq up

four points, making some headlines and this may say something about the times we're living in, staples is now going to begin installing amazon lockers in its u.s. stores. the locker also allow online shoppers to have packages sent to local stores. amazon already has grocery convenience and drugstore chains. the internet retailers wants to let customers having to avoid to wait for packages due to a missed delivery, people talk about best buy. >> i didn't know what that meant. now i get it. >> people talk about best buy being a shopping library for amazon, now they're moving their shipping places to these big boxes. >> where you won't be home, so that you'd have it sent to staples. >> that's a faustian deal. >> it is. >> it's a faustian deal. >> would home depot ever do something like that? >> i can't say. i don't know. i can't imagine for the simple reason that what we sell, weight, bulk, you know. >> right. >> by the way, let me tell you one more thing about this

tragedy. chuck schumer, mike bloomberg, andrew cuomo, they've been unbelievable. they've been accessible. we've been wonderful to work with, and by the way, i'll tell you another human interest story, stan dracamone and his wife walking around breezy point, giving out bottles of water, okay. this is the greatness of america. jeff canada, god bless this man. calls me up friday and says kenny we need "d" batteries bad. by the way i'm bragging, what home depot has done through this whole thing is nothing short, i'm so proud of that company. frank blake and the team, aaron flow, the president of the northern division up here, all weekend -- look, there is a silver lining to this tragedy. we're going to show the world why new york is indeed the greatest city on earth. we'll show them.

>> there are still hundreds of thousands of people in new york and new jersey don't have power, it's 27 degrees out this morning. >> this is a storm, you know, i always say the media is exaggerating. this is one they understated. we had the highest previous surge, 13.2 feet. this was -- 11.2. the east river is a tidal strait, it goes north when the tide is coming in and south. can you imagine the water coming in from long island sound, new york harbor and meeting in the middle? where we were? i mean, this was a force of nature like we've never known before. i feel for these people, but everything, believe me, i'm very comfortable that the mayor and the governor and chuck schumer. chuck, i got to tell you something, god bless these people. this is one time i'm not partisan. god bless these people. they've been fabulous. they're cooperating. they're doing everything they

can. the mayors -- we took a huge hit, a gigantic hit and to get it up and running, we're going to do it but we need a lot of help and we're getting it. home depot supply, the company we sold off, they got us pumps yesterday from nowhere, that we need to get the hospital up and running. everybody's pitching in, everybody. >> which gives you hope about what we can expect over the next few months as we look towards the fiscal cliff, too, correct? >> but that's in washington. i don't care what we do with the fiscal cliff. we've got to be realistic. we've got these enormous obligations that are mounting at the state and county level with pensions, we're only exacerbating the problem with 1% and 2% interest rates. when you got an assumed rate of return of 7.5 or 8, you're going 75% in the hole every year on your difference. >> is that the federal reserve's fault for keeping rates low for so long? >> it's unnatural. it shouldn't be -- look, i understand why we're doing it, but the stimulus did not work.

say what you will, whatever you want. it did not work. that was, by the way there was a wonderful sign, it showed all of the things that happen in the private sector. look at the amount of money that was poured into these startup companies by the government, bankrupt, bankrupt, bankrupt, bankrupt, bankrupt. >> if obama does win, what happens? meaning this politically divided partisan rancor, does it continue? do people stop? i can see if romney wins how potentially it could stop and it will be a good thing, maybe it happens, i don't know. i wonder what happens if obama wins. >> i think obama, pardon me i'm not a shrink but i think he lacks the capacity to be flexible, and flexibility is going to be the order of the day. and one thing about romney -- look, let me tell you about this man. this is a very decent, kind man wonderful shall it -- i'm not

taking a thing away from the president but if there's ever been a time for no etiology, it's coming up. >> it's coming up. yep. >> we got to take the pain and we have to take it together. >> on that score we agree. we have to slip in a quick break and we'll come back and continue talking about all of these issues and more. coming up we'll talk about residents of the northeast still reeling from superstorm sandy bracing for yet another storm set to move in tomorrow. we'll get the updated forecast after the break and still to come, we've got don peebles on president obama's path to another term, that's his view and what four more years would look like and larry lindsey who will break down the electoral map, got some interesting forecasts, a strong track record of predicting electoral results and we'll get them, when we return. folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico sure are happy. i'd say happier than a slinky on an escalator. get happy. get geico. melons!!! oh yeah!!

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. it's time for your election day forecast, weather forecast as people make their way to the polls. danielle banks joins us from the weather channel with the report and details on the nor east e threatening the east coast just as is tries to recover from superstorm sandy. danielle? >> thank you so much, sir. let's go ahead and first begin with what's hanging up in terms of getting out the doors into sections of the upper midwest. you can see a little bit of snowfall there, didn't want to disregard that but of course a lot of folks are concerned about what's happening as this storm system exits away from the southeast and begins its northward trek, clearly it's

what's causing the messy weather into florida for today. the latest forecast models which are again, we've been running these and running these, and taking a look at them, and from 24 hours ago, they are trending a lot further offshore, that's not to say that we won't still have the wet and the windy impacts especially for folks closer to the coast. now some of the more inland impacts will include some snowfall, and officially we believe that everybody should be done and away from this by the time we get into late thursday, with the exception of some light snowflakes falling or light snow falling around sections of the higher elevations, but we definitely still want people to be aware of the rain as well as the wind, some 40, 50 and potentially 60-mile-per-hour gusts are possible with this storm. becky, back to you. >> all right, danielle, thank you very much. >> when we come back we'll talk market expectations for this election day trading session, and then real estate mogul done peebles on why he thinks

president obama is the better candidate on taxes and small business. "squawk" will be back after this. [ female announcer ] i found the best cafe in the world. ♪ nespresso. where there's a coffee to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect cup. where every cappuccino and latte is made with fresh milk. ♪ and where clothing is optional. nespresso. what else?

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welcome back to "squawk box." let's look at some stocks to watch in today's trading.

cvs caremark reported earnings, 85 cents a share, that was one cent above estimates and also raised its full year forecast. with store sales improving and more members for its pdms, its farmry benefit management services, and express scripts third quarter profit of $1.02 a share, three cents above expectations, revenue though was below expectations. look what is going to happen to express scripts, and the company also says 2013 results will be impacted by a weak business climate and whatever kind of forecasts the company gave as well as below what people were hoping more. marsh & mcclennan earned 39 cents, above expectations, saw increasing strength in insurance and consulting business. let's get some election prospective from a supporter of president obama, joining us from new york is don peebles, chairman and ceo of the peebles corporation. good morning to you, don.

>> good morning. >> when you think about president obama, if he were to win, we keep talking on this program about the fiscal cliff. do you have confidence and it's a question we've asked around the table this morning a lot, do you have any renewed confidence post election given what looks like if he does win t would be a slim margin, if he wins at all, that they'll actually be able to have some kind of bipartisan compromise around the fiscal cliff? >> i think if president obama wins, which i believe he will win this evening, and get reelected to a second term, i believe that we will have a renewed sense of bipartisanship. i think that all of us, democrats and republicans, want to see this country move forward and know that we have some considerable work ahead of us in terms of our fiscal crises, unemployment and jobs, tax reform, and many other things that we need to do to get our economy moving even forward further than it has its first term under president obama. >> a very smart man said this, john, i just wonder if you can

tell me who the author of this is. "this is a bad time to raise taxes because americans can't afford it. what's more concerning is that the president wants to raise taxes on one segment of the population. if you're going to raise taxes you should raise them across the board, but i wouldn't advocate a tax hike on anyone at this time." >> i said it and i still stand by it. >> i know. >> and i completely agree with that and i don't think that -- >> that's been his whole platform for the last two years, don. don't you talk -- you're friends. that's been what he has run for re-election on. >> yeah, look, the president has made a big part of his campaign about rebalancing the tax system. i think -- >> but he's wrong about it. by the way you feel he's wrong about that, right? >> i do. >> what do you feel he's right about? >> i think, well, bringing bin laden to justice, getting us out of iraq, making our world more stable. looking at how he saved the

automobile industry, reducing taxes 18 times on small businesses. >> you're not going to be able to write off your jet anymore, my friend. >> unfortunately it looks like i may not be able to write off many things. i'm a big believer that we need to have careful consideration before we raise anyone's taxes, and i believe that that's going to be the case, because when the president wins, it is not going to be by a landslide, and there's going to be a mandate from this country that wants both parties to work together because we'll see an extremely close election and anybody who doesn't realize that i think is going to suffer some consequences during the midterms. i think also we could have a situation where we have one candidate win the popular vote and another one win the electoral college. again, one that would be conducive to creating a more bipartisanship approach to how we run our government. >> and don? >> hmm? >> ken langone. how are you? >> good, ken, how are you doing? >> i am less bothered by the tax

situation, although it's an issue, than i am about the enormity of regulation that's been burdened on business, particularly small companies, these last four years. i can tell you, this is impeding economic recovery. you don't create jobs in big companies. you do not create jobs in big companies. by the way, don, one thing i would like to say, mitt romney did not advocate shutting the automobile industry down. we had bankruptcy laws in place. they work. there was debtor in possession financing available under conventional bankruptcy. >> i agree with you there. >> so what we did, wait a minute don. >> i think president obama and mitt romney's approach to general motors was similar. mitt romney as a businessperson i know mitt romney recommended a restructuring using the bankruptcy laws. >> don, there's one thing that needs mention. who won in that? the unions. the unions got 41%, and the

senior creditors, the world was turned upside down, this frightens me don, the bankruptcy laws worked forever. look at the number of companies gone through bankruptcy, the banks were there to give them d.i.p. financing, they restructured, they renegotiated, got the business right sized and they went off to the races but my big, and i'm pleading, don, that if you have any influence if the president wins, i'll do the same if romney wins, we've got to address the issue of strangulation by regulation. we've got to address it. it's hurting us badly. >> ken, you make a great point. most of the jobs that are going to be created and continue to be created during this recovery that we're engaging in, if we're going to expand it, small businesses are going to create those jobs. >> absolutely, don. >> and they can't manage a very heavy regulatory environment, and so we need to streamline regulations to grow small businesses and i believe this president understands that, and i think we'll see a big difference in the second term.

i think you'll also see in a second term more people from the financial services industry being a part of the administration. i think you'll see a greater partnership between government and business, and look -- >> don, what do you think that? >> why? because i think that's what it's going to take to move the economy forward to a pace -- >> but there's nothing the president has done that has indicated thus far that he wants to be a friend, if you will, of wall street. >> don, you're a capitalist -- >> he doesn't have to be a friend of wall street. his job is to be the president of the united states and protect the interests of this nation and to protect the interests of all americans, and so that means business and individuals and unions and the like, and if businesspeople, we may have problems with unions. look at my business, look at the cost of construction as a result of union versus non-union. look at new york city. but you do get greater quality theoretically from that. look, none of us want to see

unions have such a great influence but on the other hand they represent the workers and the president has an obligation to balance that, don't you think? >> don, help me out. 2010 you'd have to say the president was rebuffed by the midterm elections. is that a fair conclusion? >> yes, it is. >> okay. so now he's now running for re-election and he wins. this is his last political campaign. he's told us that often enough that i now believe it. what's going to motivate this man to get away from being what i think to be an ideologue? look, i am in the 1%. i'm proud to be in the 1%. >> me, too. >> but i started like you did, started in the 99%. leon cooperman, all these people, this is the genius of america to allow guys like me, guys like you to work like hell, to have a good idea, to -- bernie marcus, arthur blank, ross perot, i go down the list of all these things, these jobs that have been created, home

dep depot, three people, us, 330,000 people working and by the way, thank god for a company the size of home depot because if it was a mom and pop hardware store in staten island today, they wouldn't be able to help. >> i agree with you. >> so what i'm saying, don, and i'm asking you, and you are a capitalist, and that's not a bad thing to be. >> no, it's a good thing to be. >> if this president wins, i am pleading with you to let him understand etiology is not in order for the next four years. we can't afford it. >> look, i agree with you. i think there's been this misperception that the president somehow is against excess or entrepreneurship. he's not. he's an activist for the average american and the middle class. the president i believe is clear that in order for us to move the economy forward and continue to expand it, there's going to of to be a renewed partnership between the private sector and the government, and that's going

to be big business, small business, and medium sized businesses, all working together and the government's going to have to incentivize businesses by tax reform and tax incentives, as opposed to tax burdens, reduced and streamline regulatory environments, and an environment and culture that says we're all going to work together and be all in this together. and that's what it's going to take and that doesn't mean raising taxes, by the way. i don't believe we're going to see a tax increase of any consequence under an obama second term. >> okay, don peebles thank you for joining the program this morning. >> thanks, don, nice talking to you. >> nice talking to you, ken. come up our next guest has a strong record of accurately predicting election results. the lindsey group only missed one state in the calls in the 2008 election, nebraska. larry is changing his early prediction on the outcome of this year's presidential race. we'll have him joining us with that prediction right after this.

with

with. welcome back to "squawk box" this morning on election day. the futures right now as people begin to make their way to the polls, dow jones looks like it would open up about 38 points higher, s&p 500 about 4.5 points higher and the nasdaq up over 6 points. the polls are open and our next guest has changed his prediction on who he thinks will win the election. joining us right now more on that is larry lindsey, the former national economic council director and president and ceo

of the lindsey group. lar larry, to this point you'd be saying you thought president obama would win re-election. what's making you change your mind? >> well, we began to look closely at the assumptions in the polls during october, and last sunday we finally made the switch. the consensus view in the polls is a narrow win for the president, but if you look closely, they have an advantage to the democrats in turnout of four points. last time it was seven points. and i really don't think that's very reflective of just how much less democratic the country is today than it was in 2008. you got to remember, '08 was the highest democratic vote in 44 years. so to say you're just backing off three points really doesn't match up with a lot of other surveys. if you look at gallup, rasmussen, they do a monthly review of all their respondents, they don't fiddle around with

assumptions, and they found the republicans are likely to have a one-point advantage so i think the consensus polls are off. i base my calls on the numbers and that's what the numbers are telling me. >> larry, because you just connected some stuff for me that i want you to respond to now. the 44-year number, that was virginia, too, president obama, the first guy to carry virginia as a democrat in 44 years. bush won by eight points both times in virginia. these polls still have the president up three-tenths of a percent, the rcp average in virginia president obama up three-tenths of a year. 2004 bush wins by eight points, what changed in virginia demographically to make it so different than it's been for the past 50 years, and what you would say is in those polls that give you the 0.3 advantage, they

are mistaken in party affiliate and what they're looking, is that right? is that what you're saying? >> yes, what pollsters, you know, back when you and i were young, joe, we used to be told it was a random sample. it's not anymore. when you pick a likely voter model you're taking a guess of what the electorate is going to look at, look like on election day and so it is a guess. it's a judgment call. their judgment call was that it looks almost like it did in 2008, but that flies in the face of people who actually surveyed to see what party people were in. it flies in the face of polling data across the spectrum that says that republicans are much more interested, much more involved, much more motivated this year, and so again, the assumption that underlies most of these polls just doesn't match up with reality. and by the way if you saw the lines here earlier, we had an election official come by said

they were the longest he's ever seen, and by the way, a high turnout in this precinct is not good news for the president. >> hey, larry? larry? >> yes. ken, hey, how are you doing? >> how are you? hey, i want to do my own little poll. i understand you've got a very special person with you today. >> i do. he's voting for the first time. >> this is troy, my oldest son. >> hey, troy, how are new. >> hi, mr. langone. >> did you vote? >> i'm study heating and air conditioning and refrigeration. >> not yet. >> almost. and i would like to own my own business and well, someday i have to build that business myself, not the president and the government. >> i hear other people say you won't. troy? you're showing wisdom far beyond your years already. hey, larry, congratulations. >> he said you showed wisdom far

beyond your -- thank you very much. i didn't tell him how to vote. i didn't tell his sister how to vote. >> can i ask him how he voted? >> she told me over the weekend -- >> we didn't vote yet but, sorry, i think he hinted pretty strongly in what he just said of how he voted. >> he's a wise, young man. >> well, thank you, ken. i think so, too. i'm very proud of him. it's interesting, young people are being questioned today about how they're going to vote. my daughter called me over the weekend, she happens to be gay, she was originally going to vote for obama, she said gay marriage can wait. the country is in too much trouble, i'm going to switch my vote. so i think a lot of people -- >> god bless you. >> -- are being reflected what i'm saying about the polls, i think people are changing their minds about what's important and i think it will be reflected today, it's part of my call. >> congratulations, troy, on your first vote. make sure you vote every time you get a chance. i didn't say this election, i didn't say often, i said every time there's an election, make

sure you participate. >> and that is true. you want to see people get out and vote. larry thank you very much for joining us today. we appreciate it. >> have a great day, larry and troy, congratulations. >> my pleasure. it's going to be a long night. thanks a lot. take care. >> thank you. joe? coming up, the word from wall street, we're going to check in with jim cramer at the new york stock -- is it 8:48? wow! going fast. and a programming note in three hours, if three hours of "squawk box" aren't enough for you it's your licky day, 5:00 p.m. eastern a special edition of "squawk box" we'll talk to reporters at each candidates' headquarters and in swing states across the country. plus interviews with iowa governor terry branstad, marty feldstein jim rohr and robert wolf. it is 5:00, i've gotten the official word. bob...

oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.

>> let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim and david join us now. it was funny yesterday when jim was talking, david, i was watching you. i have known you for so long. never would you say anything about any of this. jim was going out on a limb.

i was going to say, faber, you got anything? i figure you would give me there will be a merger. that's all i get from you. doesn't matter if we're in the middle of election day you're still talking about business, right? you got anything for me today? >> we got a lot of earnings this morning. we got in my old area we have dish and directv and discovery, of course. charter, cable vision. we'll talk about those on the show today. >> i know that's what i would get. how about you, jim? you're purple all the time. today more than ever. >> i was out kicking off the fun drive as a favor to my friend. what a remarkable job you have done. you never talk about your charity. that's the way it should be done. i have to say that bucknell is a fabulous school and i was thrilled to participate in the

fun run. >> thank you for saying that, jim. bucknell is one of the most significant reasons i've had the life i've had since i graduated. i'm grateful for the fact that i went there and i would have been there that night with you, jim, but i was on the way to the hospital with pneumonia. >> i'm sorry. >> i'm alive and kicking. it's fine. >> if you heard a discussion about steve jobs and business that was remarkable. steve jobs was one of the greatest businessman that ever lived. much more about what you're about than i ever thought. >> while we're throwing out bouquets, this dean and ceo at nyu and the entire group there, there needs to be a special on television about what happened there under his leadership and every one of these cops, firemen, ems, civilians, it was a night of a miracle. i'm bragging, okay. i think i have a right to brag

based on what they did. >> yes, you do. let others brag for you too. it's remarkable what you've done. people don't come out and say it and i just feel like after my trip to bucknell, you built a beautiful campus but you don't get credit. i'm giving you credit. >> i get all of the credit in the world, jim, and satisfaction of having succeeded in a capitalistic society starting from nothing and i want to make sure we preserve that for all of the kids that come after us. that's what this election to me is all about. >> well said. excellent. we'll see you guys -- david, are you done at noon today? or 11:00 or something? >> i'll be at 30 rock if you need me. do you want to come by? you're overdue for lunch. >> 5:00 to 7:00 if you want to hang out here. no jackets though. >> all right. >> i know cramer would rather do every show in that attire.

>> yes, i do. they itch. >> i know. constantly. it's like a got a haircut. >> i miss the no jackets. i miss a lot of things including you. >> we'll see you. >> when we come back, we'll get the last word from our guest host. ♪

[ female announcer ] today is not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the brick, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, the open-air office and the home office as well. ♪ today is not just about who rides in air force one, it's about who rides in the 4 door sedan, the 2 door hatchback and the v8 muscle car. ♪ because today it's about all of us. and no matter who you are, or where you live, you're the commander-in-chief of your own life. and that's something that will never change.

♪ >> cvs caremark reporting earnings of 84 cents a share. raising full-year guidance. store sales improving and more members of the benefit management services and there it is. express scripts down after weak

guidance. active and sharply lower. wow. look at fossil. cvs was called higher based on better than expected. >> let's get back to our guest host for the last word. this is a word association game. word you picked is kindness. why? >> i saw an outpouring of kindness and concern throughout the city and this region in the last week and it's wonderful. i hope we focus on the great things that make america the great nation that it is. all of us. we have had a contested election. we've said a lot of things. we got to get down to work and take some pain but every time we've had our back to the wall, we've demonstrated on that. this will be one more time. all i can say is cops, firemen, civilians, doctors, nurses, you name it. they all pitched in